Good afternoon all! Attached is today’s solar disc viewing plasma at 6,000 Kelvin (AIA 1700) to see sunspots, 1 million Kelvin (AIA 171) to see coronal loops, and 2 million Kelvin (AIA 211) to see the coronal hole in the southern hemisphere. Solar activity has been low since the M5.2 flare a few days ago. AR2051, which rotated across the western limb three days ago, has been active with several coronal mass ejections seen in LASCO imagery over the past few days. None of these CMEs will be aimed towards Earth. Geomagnetic activity has also been at low levels. No disturbances are expected today. —————————————————————————– Current Space Weather Data: Solar Wind Speed: 378 km/s (Low) Solar Wind Density: 6.0 p/cm^3 (Low) IMF Strength (Bt): 7.4 nT (Low) Bz: -5.4 nT (South) Current Solar X-ray Data: Current Level: B7.0 (Trending downwards) 24 hr max: C8.7 (AR2056 @ 0702 UTC) Current Geomagnetic K-indices: Boulder: 1.8 Anchorage: 2 Mull: 3 Sundsvall: 2 Australia: 0 Current Estimated Kp for 1500 – 1800 UT: 2 (Quiet) Source: https://www.facebook.com/spaceweathertrackers
Tag Archives: Forecast
5/9/14 Forecasts Spaceweather and Weather
5/9/14 Forecasts:
WX Forecast:
Mostly cloudy for much of the night with a few isolated showers across the region after midnight. Heading into tomorrow, expect mild temperatures reaching into the upper 70s to near 80. Scattered showers will be more widespread than tonight, with a few embedded thunderstorms.
Morning low: 55; High: 79
SPWX Forecast:
As expected solar activity has continued to increase. An M5.2 solar flare occurred from region 2056. No CME was detected with this event. I continue to leave solar flare probabilities fairly elevated.
C-Class: 97%
M-Class: 58%
X-Class: 23%
Solar winds remain nominal but will increase in about 48 hrs. as we see the effects of a recurrent CH HSS. Aurora activity will likely reach into Alaska and Canada as we see a kp-index of 4 tonight.
Space Weather Tracker Forecast 5/7/14
Good afternoon all!
Attached is today’s solar disc viewing plasma at a temperature of 50,000 Kelvin (AIA 304) and 10 million Kelvin (AIA 131) with sunspot regions labeled.
Solar activity had been below the M-class levels for nearly a month until AR2051, now on the western limb and no longer visible, fired off now three M-class flares all at the M1 level, including one that just peaked a half an hour ago, pictured here.
No CMEs have currently been seen, although even if there had been its proximity to the western limb will more than likely cause them to miss anyway.
Currently only regions 2055 and 2056 have potential for flaring, with 2055 possessing a beta-gamma magnetic layout with 2056 looking like a beta-gamma-delta, although its close proximity to the limb still distorts its magnetic layout and is not with certainty.
Regardless, 2056 appears to be the spot to look out for for possible M-class flares.
A new region is also rotating around the southeastern limb that we should see fully in the next day or so.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be quiet, with the aurora confined to polar regions only.
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Current Space Weather Data:
Solar Wind Speed: 333 km/s (Low)
Solar Wind Density: 2.2 p/cm^3 (Low)
IMF Strength (Bt): 4 nT (Low)
Bz: -0.8 nT (South)
Current Solar X-ray Data:
Current Level: C6.3 – Trending downwards
24 hr max level: M1.8 (AR2051 on SW limb)
Current Ground-based Geomagnetic K-indices:
Anchorage: 2
Sundsvall: 2
Mull: 2
Boulder: 3.3
Australia: 0
Estimated Kp for 1500 – 1800 UT: 2 (Quiet)
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5/7/14 FORECASTS
WX Forecast:
A beautiful night overall to go do some stargazing. Mainly clear skies and cool conditions, dropping into the 40s. Tomorrow should be nice for the most part, although there is a slight chance for an evening shower across the region (30%).
Morning low: 44; High: 72.
SPWX Forecast:
As expected, activity has recently increased, with two M-Class flares in the last 24 hrs. I don’t see the activity calming down anytime soon. While both flares originated from sunspot 2051 (which just turned around the western limb, away from Earth) region 2055 and 2056 should be watched, as they had released flares prior to turning toward Earth. Both of these regions I could see becoming a Beta-gamma-delta over in the near-future. I am still keeping the solar flare probabilities fairly elevated over the next 24-48hrs.
C-Class: 91%
M-Class: 53%
X-Class: 18%
Looking at the solar winds they continue at nominal levels, but expect an increase over the next 24-48hrs, thanks to the CH-HSS. As a result we could also see geomagnetic activity increase just a bit, potentially seeing aurora reach in central Canada and Alaska. Kp-index is expected to remain below at or below 4 over this period.
5/5/14 spaceweather forecast
5/2/14 Weather and Spaceweather Forecasts
Meteorologist Gregg Mccambley
5/3/14 Forecasts
WX Forecast:
A nice night with some clouds. Expect temperatures to drop into the upper 40s to near 50. Heading into tomorrow, expect beautiful conditions. Mostly sunny to start the day, with an increase in clouds in the afternoon with some isolated showers possible across the region late in the afternoon. Expect temperatures to approach near 70.
SPWX Forecast:
Continued quietness. Aside from a few c-class flares over the past 24 hrs, all else is quiet. Though I am keeping an eye on sunspots 2047 and 2049 as I could see an M-class eruption in the next 24-48hrs, and a minor chance for an X-class. Flare probabilities: C-class: 93%; M-Class: 52%; X-Class: 13%
Solar winds are nominal at around 350 km/s and geomagnetic activity is practically non-existent. Expect Kp values to remain at 2 or below.
5/1/14 Weather and Spaceweather Forecasts
Meteorologist Gregg Mccambley
5/1/14 Forecasts:
WX Forecast
A beautiful night. It may be a bit muggy, but clearing skies and comfortable temperatures will lead to a nice night to go stargazing (Stargazing rating: 7.2/10). Heading into tomorrow, a mix of clouds and sun with some isolated showers across the region, but again, overall a very nice day setting up.
SPWX Forecast
Quiet. The solar disk is fairly quiet, aside from few isolated sunspots, which includes sunspot 2049, which I’m still keeping an eye on. This region has the best chance to release CMEs. For that, I am leaving the probabilities a bit high for solar flare activity. C-class: High (88%), M-Class: Moderate (43%) and X-class: low 12%. Solar winds are nominal and expect kp values to remain at 3 or below for the next 24 hrs.