Snapped this shot last evening at sunset. Sunspot 2396, a behemoth of a sunspot (The size equivalent to multiple Earth’s) is now turning away from Earth, but has the potential to release a major flare soon. Watching it closely. Will post if I see any activity with it (and I’m near internet).
Side note: The clouds (the cirrus at least) give the sun the appearance of being a a gas planet, pretty cool.
~ MGM
Tag Archives: Meteorologist Gregg Mccambley
Second Geomagnetic Storm In 48 Hours Could Strike Earth as Soon as Wednesday – weather.com
5/16/14 Space Weather and Weather FORECASTS
WX Forecast:
Areas in-and-around Philly, PA… though this flooding threat is for much of PA, MD, VA, DE and parts of NJ.
Rain, rain and some more rain… yup, beginning tonight and into tomorrow, expect a good deal of rain… mainly tomorrow. FLASH FLOODING is a good possibility and remember DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS…. flooded roadways WILL OCCUR tomorrow, so don’t be a moron. Expect rain to begin mid morning and last through late afternoon/early evening, heavy at times.
(P.S. If you do get stuck trying to drive through flooded roads, I will make an effort to personally come out there, and backhand you across the face.)
SPWX Forecast:
The sun continues to be fairly quiet. A few sunspots visible on the solar disk, but nothing to serious looking. Flare probability forecast:
C-Class: 87%
M-Class: 20%
X-Class: 2%
Solar winds are tranquil, but may see slight enhancement over the next 2 hours due to a recurrent positive-polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS), but nothing to crazy. Expecting the Kp-index to remain at or below 3. Aurora probability remains low for tonight. Areas in northern Canada and Alaska have the best shot of seeing anything.
5/9/14 Forecasts Spaceweather and Weather
5/9/14 Forecasts:
WX Forecast:
Mostly cloudy for much of the night with a few isolated showers across the region after midnight. Heading into tomorrow, expect mild temperatures reaching into the upper 70s to near 80. Scattered showers will be more widespread than tonight, with a few embedded thunderstorms.
Morning low: 55; High: 79
SPWX Forecast:
As expected solar activity has continued to increase. An M5.2 solar flare occurred from region 2056. No CME was detected with this event. I continue to leave solar flare probabilities fairly elevated.
C-Class: 97%
M-Class: 58%
X-Class: 23%
Solar winds remain nominal but will increase in about 48 hrs. as we see the effects of a recurrent CH HSS. Aurora activity will likely reach into Alaska and Canada as we see a kp-index of 4 tonight.
Sunspot and Solarflare Forecast
Alright, things are really spicing up in space weather…. sunspot 2056 is being labeled as a Beta-Gamma-Delta by the ASSA. While this doesn’t mean an X-class flare is definite, the possibilities of such an event are elevated. This, along with its brother sunspot 2055 are to regions to keep focus on over the coming week. While they haven’t produced much since turning around the horizon, I’m sure some activity will be seen in the near future from these regions. Be sure to keep checking back for further updates. Source: https://www.facebook.com/MeteorologistGM
5/7/14 FORECASTS
WX Forecast:
A beautiful night overall to go do some stargazing. Mainly clear skies and cool conditions, dropping into the 40s. Tomorrow should be nice for the most part, although there is a slight chance for an evening shower across the region (30%).
Morning low: 44; High: 72.
SPWX Forecast:
As expected, activity has recently increased, with two M-Class flares in the last 24 hrs. I don’t see the activity calming down anytime soon. While both flares originated from sunspot 2051 (which just turned around the western limb, away from Earth) region 2055 and 2056 should be watched, as they had released flares prior to turning toward Earth. Both of these regions I could see becoming a Beta-gamma-delta over in the near-future. I am still keeping the solar flare probabilities fairly elevated over the next 24-48hrs.
C-Class: 91%
M-Class: 53%
X-Class: 18%
Looking at the solar winds they continue at nominal levels, but expect an increase over the next 24-48hrs, thanks to the CH-HSS. As a result we could also see geomagnetic activity increase just a bit, potentially seeing aurora reach in central Canada and Alaska. Kp-index is expected to remain below at or below 4 over this period.
5/2/14 Weather and Spaceweather Forecasts
Meteorologist Gregg Mccambley
5/3/14 Forecasts
WX Forecast:
A nice night with some clouds. Expect temperatures to drop into the upper 40s to near 50. Heading into tomorrow, expect beautiful conditions. Mostly sunny to start the day, with an increase in clouds in the afternoon with some isolated showers possible across the region late in the afternoon. Expect temperatures to approach near 70.
SPWX Forecast:
Continued quietness. Aside from a few c-class flares over the past 24 hrs, all else is quiet. Though I am keeping an eye on sunspots 2047 and 2049 as I could see an M-class eruption in the next 24-48hrs, and a minor chance for an X-class. Flare probabilities: C-class: 93%; M-Class: 52%; X-Class: 13%
Solar winds are nominal at around 350 km/s and geomagnetic activity is practically non-existent. Expect Kp values to remain at 2 or below.
5/1/14 Weather and Spaceweather Forecasts
Meteorologist Gregg Mccambley
5/1/14 Forecasts:
WX Forecast
A beautiful night. It may be a bit muggy, but clearing skies and comfortable temperatures will lead to a nice night to go stargazing (Stargazing rating: 7.2/10). Heading into tomorrow, a mix of clouds and sun with some isolated showers across the region, but again, overall a very nice day setting up.
SPWX Forecast
Quiet. The solar disk is fairly quiet, aside from few isolated sunspots, which includes sunspot 2049, which I’m still keeping an eye on. This region has the best chance to release CMEs. For that, I am leaving the probabilities a bit high for solar flare activity. C-class: High (88%), M-Class: Moderate (43%) and X-class: low 12%. Solar winds are nominal and expect kp values to remain at 3 or below for the next 24 hrs.