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Weekly Sun SOHO 2014 May
Space Weather Trackers Forecast 5-16-14
Good afternoon everyone!
Attached is today’s solar disc viewing plasma at 1 Million Kelvin (AIA 171) to see coronal loops above active regions, 1.25 Million Kelvin to see darker filaments in the corona, and 50,000 Kelvin to see features around sunspot regions in the surface of the chromosphere.
Today’s solar activity has been at quiet levels with only one C-class flare detected from region 2066 in the southern hemisphere.
Currently all sunspot regions remain simple with only C-class flares expected in the next 24 hours.
Geomagnetic activity is also at quiet levels with no disturbances expected in the next 24 hours as well.
Source: https://www.facebook.com/spaceweathertrackers
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Current Space Weather Data:
Solar Wind Speed: 356 km/s (Low)
Solar Wind Density: 4.6 p/cm^3 (Low)
IMF Strength (Bt): 5.1 nT (Low)
Bz: 3.9 nT (North)
Current Solar X-ray Data:
Current Level: B4.7 (Flat-lined)
24 hr Max Level: ~C2.7 (AR2066 @ ~0250 UT)
Current Geomagnetic K-indices:
Boulder: 2.1
Anchorage: 2
Sundsvall: 2
Mull: 1
Australia: 0
Estimated Kp for 1800 – 2100 UT: 2 (Quiet)
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5/16/14 Space Weather and Weather FORECASTS
WX Forecast:
Areas in-and-around Philly, PA… though this flooding threat is for much of PA, MD, VA, DE and parts of NJ.
Rain, rain and some more rain… yup, beginning tonight and into tomorrow, expect a good deal of rain… mainly tomorrow. FLASH FLOODING is a good possibility and remember DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS…. flooded roadways WILL OCCUR tomorrow, so don’t be a moron. Expect rain to begin mid morning and last through late afternoon/early evening, heavy at times.
(P.S. If you do get stuck trying to drive through flooded roads, I will make an effort to personally come out there, and backhand you across the face.)
SPWX Forecast:
The sun continues to be fairly quiet. A few sunspots visible on the solar disk, but nothing to serious looking. Flare probability forecast:
C-Class: 87%
M-Class: 20%
X-Class: 2%
Solar winds are tranquil, but may see slight enhancement over the next 2 hours due to a recurrent positive-polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS), but nothing to crazy. Expecting the Kp-index to remain at or below 3. Aurora probability remains low for tonight. Areas in northern Canada and Alaska have the best shot of seeing anything.
Space Weather Trackers Forecast 5/15/14
Good afternoon everyone!
Attached is today’s solar disc viewing plasma at 6,000 & 100,000 Kelvin (AIA 1600) to see sunspots, and 10 million Kelvin (AIA 131) to see super-heated plasma from solar flares.
Solar activity has remained at active levels, but this time from region 2060 in the southern hemisphere with a few low C-class flares including this C5-class flare peaking just before 0300 UT today.
All current sunspots remain at simple configurations. A small chance for M-class flares coming from active regions 2056 and 2060 remain. 2063 remains simple magnetically but is growing into a compact region that could start erupting with higher C-class flares soon.
Geomagnetic activity is still at quiet levels with Bz primarily taking a northern orientation the past 24 hours and low solar wind speeds. K-indices are not expected to go above a K3, assuming a period of southern Bz.
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Space Weather Data:
Solar Wind Speed: 332 km/s (Low)
Solar Wind Density: 4.5 p/cm^3 (Low)
IMF Strength (Bt): 6 nT (Low)
Bz: -0.8 nT (South)
Solar X-ray Data:
Current Level: B5.1 (Flat-lined)
24 hr Max: C5 (AR2060 @ ~0255 UT)
Current Geomagnetic K-indices:
Boulder: 0.6
Anchorage: 0
Sundsvall: 2
Mull: 1
Australia: 0
Estimated Kp for 1800 – 2100 UT: 1 (Very Quiet)
#dailysun May 12 2014
iMountainNews Daily Sun #dailysun
Big Bear Activity Report
Solar activity is moderate. C-class events were observed in region NOAA 12055, 12056 and 12058. Region NOAA 12055 shows some new flux emerging near the trailing spot. Region NOAA 12056 is now a delta configuration again. C-class events are likely in region NOAA 12056. An M-class flare is possible in this region as well. C-class events are possible in regions NOAA 12055 and 12058.
Solar Videos
Soho Video 5-8-14 to 5-12-14
Solar Flaring is picking up on the 11 – 12
SDO Video 5-10-14 5-12-14
For more data go to http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/
Credit NASA, SOHO
5/9/14 Forecasts Spaceweather and Weather
5/9/14 Forecasts:
WX Forecast:
Mostly cloudy for much of the night with a few isolated showers across the region after midnight. Heading into tomorrow, expect mild temperatures reaching into the upper 70s to near 80. Scattered showers will be more widespread than tonight, with a few embedded thunderstorms.
Morning low: 55; High: 79
SPWX Forecast:
As expected solar activity has continued to increase. An M5.2 solar flare occurred from region 2056. No CME was detected with this event. I continue to leave solar flare probabilities fairly elevated.
C-Class: 97%
M-Class: 58%
X-Class: 23%
Solar winds remain nominal but will increase in about 48 hrs. as we see the effects of a recurrent CH HSS. Aurora activity will likely reach into Alaska and Canada as we see a kp-index of 4 tonight.
Space Weather Tracker Forecast 5/7/14
Good afternoon all!
Attached is today’s solar disc viewing plasma at a temperature of 50,000 Kelvin (AIA 304) and 10 million Kelvin (AIA 131) with sunspot regions labeled.
Solar activity had been below the M-class levels for nearly a month until AR2051, now on the western limb and no longer visible, fired off now three M-class flares all at the M1 level, including one that just peaked a half an hour ago, pictured here.
No CMEs have currently been seen, although even if there had been its proximity to the western limb will more than likely cause them to miss anyway.
Currently only regions 2055 and 2056 have potential for flaring, with 2055 possessing a beta-gamma magnetic layout with 2056 looking like a beta-gamma-delta, although its close proximity to the limb still distorts its magnetic layout and is not with certainty.
Regardless, 2056 appears to be the spot to look out for for possible M-class flares.
A new region is also rotating around the southeastern limb that we should see fully in the next day or so.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be quiet, with the aurora confined to polar regions only.
https://www.facebook.com/spaceweathertrackers
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Current Space Weather Data:
Solar Wind Speed: 333 km/s (Low)
Solar Wind Density: 2.2 p/cm^3 (Low)
IMF Strength (Bt): 4 nT (Low)
Bz: -0.8 nT (South)
Current Solar X-ray Data:
Current Level: C6.3 – Trending downwards
24 hr max level: M1.8 (AR2051 on SW limb)
Current Ground-based Geomagnetic K-indices:
Anchorage: 2
Sundsvall: 2
Mull: 2
Boulder: 3.3
Australia: 0
Estimated Kp for 1500 – 1800 UT: 2 (Quiet)
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